Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $989,457$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,014,713.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,014,713.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,858$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,952.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.6)}}\) (asimptote \(35,952.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,189$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,537,169$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,677,887.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 204.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,677,887.8\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,763$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,809.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 200.4)}}\) (asimptote \(44,809.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $132,789$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,213,155$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,683,789.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 157.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,683,789.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $186,356$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,495.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 131.2)}}\) (asimptote \(176,495.5\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $637,861$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $583,355$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{527,096.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(527,096.3\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $16,101$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,722.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 120.0)}}\) (asimptote \(14,722.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,921$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,496,062$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,503,140.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 190.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,503,140.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $40,268$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,485.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 162.9)}}\) (asimptote \(38,485.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $93,251$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $205,920$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,174.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 176.8)}}\) (asimptote \(234,174.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,948$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,572.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 161.6)}}\) (asimptote \(15,572.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,021$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $149,770$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,772.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 133.3)}}\) (asimptote \(144,772.3\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,035$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,168.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 142.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,168.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,920$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $99,157$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,717.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 214.5)}}\) (asimptote \(102,717.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,072$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,005.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 203.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,005.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,142$ on 2020-12-19
