Analysis of the most affected countries in South America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $989,457$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,014,713.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,014,713.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,858$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,952.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.6)}}\) (asimptote \(35,952.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,189$ on 2020-12-19

Argentina

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,537,169$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,677,887.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 204.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,677,887.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,763$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,809.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 200.4)}}\) (asimptote \(44,809.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $132,789$ on 2020-12-19

Brazil

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,213,155$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,683,789.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 157.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,683,789.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $186,356$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,495.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 131.2)}}\) (asimptote \(176,495.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $637,861$ on 2020-12-19

Chile

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $583,355$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{527,096.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(527,096.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $16,101$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,722.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 120.0)}}\) (asimptote \(14,722.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,921$ on 2020-12-19

Colombia

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,496,062$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,503,140.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 190.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,503,140.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40,268$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,485.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 162.9)}}\) (asimptote \(38,485.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,251$ on 2020-12-19

Ecuador

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $205,920$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,174.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 176.8)}}\) (asimptote \(234,174.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,948$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,572.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 161.6)}}\) (asimptote \(15,572.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,021$ on 2020-12-19

Bolivia

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $149,770$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,772.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 133.3)}}\) (asimptote \(144,772.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,035$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,168.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 142.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,168.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,920$ on 2020-12-19

Paraguay

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $99,157$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,717.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 214.5)}}\) (asimptote \(102,717.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,072$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,005.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 203.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,005.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,142$ on 2020-12-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)